The Promise of a Tax is Not the Same as Its Delivery

ABUJA, NIGERIA — The Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare today announced Nigeria's commitment to align the existing Sugar-Sweetened Beverage tax with the World Health Organization's recommendation of approximately 20% of final retail price. The announcement, made during the Pro-Health Tax Policy Campaign on Sugar Sweetened Beverages in Abuja, frames the increase as a public health intervention with revenue earmarked for the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases. The Foundation for Consumer Freedom Advancement (FCFA) is responding today.

The Director of Public Health described the increase as "a step in the right direction" and said the revenue would be channelled to the diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular care programmes that NCDs are placing under increasing strain. Two of those statements are familiar. They were made in 2021 when the original ₦10-per-litre tax was introduced through the Finance Act of that year. The earmarking promise was not delivered then. There is no public reporting today on what happened to the revenue generated since.

The Question That Should Come First

Nigerian consumers are being asked to consider a higher tax on the same products, with the same earmarking promise, from the same federal government, two years after the first version of that promise was made and not kept. The question that should come before "should the rate be raised to 20%" is "what happened to the rate that already exists."

That question has not been answered publicly. The 2021 Finance Act introduced the SSB excise duty with the same justification being offered today. The revenue collected since then is not visibly reflected in increased federal health budget allocations to NCD-related programmes. No agency has been formally tasked with publishing the connection between SSB tax revenue and NCD outcomes. No annual report tracks the disbursement. The accountability infrastructure that would make the existing tax credible to the Nigerians paying it has never been built.

If the original ₦10 tax has not been transparently used for the purposes it was sold to support, the basis for asking Nigerian consumers to absorb a much larger version of the same tax is not yet established.

A Reasonable Test

FCFA's position is straightforward. Any rate increase should be paired with three things, delivered in that order. First, an independent audit of SSB tax revenue collected since 2022, broken down by collection year. Second, a clear identification of which specific health programmes have received any portion of those funds, with verifiable disbursement records. Third, a binding earmarking framework with annual public reporting, written into the legislation that authorises any future rate change.

Without those three things, "20%" is a number, not a policy. With those three things, a serious public conversation about the right rate becomes possible.

What Comes Next

The Foundation for Consumer Freedom Advancement will continue to engage the Federal Ministries of Health and Finance, the National Assembly, and Nigerian consumer groups on this question. The conversation about whether the SSB tax should rise has to start with an honest accounting of what the existing rate has done. Until then, Nigerian consumers are being asked to trust the same promise twice. They should not have to.