An open-ended sugar tax is a blank cheque drawn on Nigerian shoppers

The House of Representatives should refuse to concur with the Senate's percentage-based sugary drinks levy until the rate is fixed in law, capped, and tested against household food budgets.

LAGOS, NIGERIA — 6 June 2026 — The Senate on Wednesday passed the Customs, Excise Tariff, etc. (Amendment) Bill, replacing the Nigerian Naira (₦) 10 per litre excise on sugar-sweetened beverages with a percentage levy tied to retail prices. By the joint committee's own report, the exact structure of the levy will be determined by the Minister of Finance. The Foundation for Consumer Freedom Advancement (FCFA) is calling on the House of Representatives to reject the bill in its current form.

The first person to feel this is not a beverage executive. It is the mother in Mushin buying a 50cl soft drink and a loaf of bread for her children's lunch, and the kiosk owner in Surulere whose margins on a crate of minerals are already thinner than the bottle cap. A bottle that sold for ₦150 when the levy began now retails between ₦350 and ₦450. A levy pegged to retail prices means that same family pays a higher tax on the same bottle every time inflation pushes prices up, with no new vote in the National Assembly required.

Mr. Olumayowa Okediran, Chairman of the Foundation for Consumer Freedom Advancement, commented:

"This is not a health policy. It is an open-ended revenue instrument with a health label, and the rate is not even in the law. Nigerians deserve to know what they will pay before the National Assembly votes, not after a minister decides by circular. We have run this experiment before. When the ₦10 levy arrived in 2022, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria projected the beverage sector would lose 40% of sales revenue, about ₦1.9 trillion over four years, and that government would collect ₦81 billion in excise while losing ₦197 billion in VAT, company income tax and tertiary education tax. Consumption habits barely moved. Prices did. If the National Assembly believes a sugar levy is necessary, the off-ramp is simple: put a fixed statutory rate in the bill, cap it, and publish an independent assessment of its impact on low-income food budgets before it takes effect."

— Mr. Olumayowa Okediran, Chairman, Foundation for Consumer Freedom Advancement

The direction of pressure is no secret. Studies cited in the Senate's own debate recommend pushing the tax to ₦130 per litre or at least 20% of retail price. South Africa offers the precedent: its Health Promotion Levy has stood at an effective rate of roughly 11% since 2022, with government declining activist demands for 20% amid cost-of-living pressure on poor households. Nigeria, with food inflation still far above headline inflation, is being asked to adopt an uncapped version of the same policy.

The House of Representatives should decline concurrence until the rate is fixed in statute, capped, and accompanied by a published consumer-impact assessment.